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Business Insight - Insight into the essence, cheating on life
People who have insight into the essence are destined to have a cheating life. Those who take half a second to see through the essence and those who spend a lifetime unable to see clearly are destined to have completely different fates. This book is worth reading three times and practicing and applying it in depth.
Edited at 2023-12-14 18:00:49
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- One Hundred Years of Solitude Character Relationship Chart
One Hundred Years of Solitude is the masterpiece of Gabriel Garcia Marquez. Reading this book begins with making sense of the characters' relationships, which are centered on the Buendía family and tells the story of the family's prosperity and decline, internal relationships and political struggles, self-mixing and rebirth over the course of a hundred years.
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Project management is the process of applying specialized knowledge, skills, tools, and methods to project activities so that the project can achieve or exceed the set needs and expectations within the constraints of limited resources. This diagram provides a comprehensive overview of the 8 components of the project management process and can be used as a generic template for direct application.
Business Insight - Insight into the essence, cheating on life
- One Hundred Years of Solitude Character Relationship Chart
One Hundred Years of Solitude is the masterpiece of Gabriel Garcia Marquez. Reading this book begins with making sense of the characters' relationships, which are centered on the Buendía family and tells the story of the family's prosperity and decline, internal relationships and political struggles, self-mixing and rebirth over the course of a hundred years.
- One Hundred Years of Solitude Character Relationship Chart
One Hundred Years of Solitude is the masterpiece of Gabriel Garcia Marquez. Reading this book begins with making sense of the characters' relationships, which are centered on the Buendía family and tells the story of the family's prosperity and decline, internal relationships and political struggles, self-mixing and rebirth over the course of a hundred years.
- Project Management Process Template
Project management is the process of applying specialized knowledge, skills, tools, and methods to project activities so that the project can achieve or exceed the set needs and expectations within the constraints of limited resources. This diagram provides a comprehensive overview of the 8 components of the project management process and can be used as a generic template for direct application.
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- Outline
business insight
Publication words
People who can see the essence in half a second are destined to have a cheating life.
What is insight? ——It is the ability to see clearly the essence of things through phenomena
Insights can also help you find simple solutions to complex problems (ordinary people change the results, excellent people change the reasons, and top people change the model)
Insight can be learned through scientific methods - System Dynamics
introduction
01 System: What are we talking about when we talk about insight?
The power of "system" is far greater than the power of "people"
What is a system - a set of interconnected elements, including the two keywords element and connection relationship
Insight is the ability to see clearly through appearances, the elements in the black box of the "system" and the connections between them.
For example: Monks share porridge, change the connection relationship, let one monk share the porridge, and another monk chooses the porridge; Scenic spot restaurants rip off customers, change the connection relationship of a single transaction, and use Dianping to let everyone see the evaluation
Ordinary people can observe, excellent people can see
Ordinary people observe a watch, but excellent people understand the connection relationship between hundreds of parts.
Ordinary people observe a cooperation, and outstanding people gain insight into the distribution of interests, risk transfer and connections behind the agreement.
Ordinary people observe a team, and excellent people observe the intricate connections between responsibilities and rights in the team.
Really deep and unusual insights come from observing how a "system" determines its own behavior
Modeling
02 Structural Module: What led to the prosperity of Great Britain
All systems, in abstract terms, have only one element (variable) and four types of connection relationships.
1. Variables (elements)
2.Causal chain (connection relationship)
3. Enhance the loop (connection relationship)
4. Regulatory loop (connection relationship)
5. Hysteresis effect (connection relationship)
How to analyze a problem
1. Find all variables
2. Use causal chains to connect the relationships between variables
3. Find the reinforcing loop
4. Find the regulating loop
5. Identify hysteresis effects
Everything in the world is a complex system, but from an "abstract" perspective, any complex system is built on its inherent simplicity.
03 Variables: Flow changes stock, and stock changes the world
Bathtub model: The stock is the water accumulated in the bathtub. Traffic is the inflow-outflow within a dynamic time period
Pay attention to core stock
The core stock of Internet companies is users
The core stock of investment institutions is Amway
The core stock of a hospital is social trust
The core stock of a lecturer is the reputation of students
The core stock of a restaurant is repeat customers
Pay attention to traffic growth rate
Strength depends on stock, potential depends on flow, and catching up depends on flow growth.
Pay attention to turnaround time
It is the scale of efficiency, and efficiency is often the lifeline of an enterprise.
Strength depends on stock, and potential depends on flow. Catching up depends on traffic growth
04Causal chain: Why is "just looking at results" the lowest management method?
A causal chain is an enhanced or weakened connection between variables.
Avoid three misunderstandings
1. Missing the middle term
Intermediate term analysis allows you to discover those deeply hidden but crucial factors
Ordinary people look for cause and effect, but you are looking for the middle term in the causal chain.
2. Superstitious correlation
Correlation is unknown cause and effect. Real insight must start from correlation but end in the causal chain.
3. Reverse the causal chain
Production cost VS sales price: Price is determined by the value felt by users and the relationship between supply and demand. Only by determining the sales price can the production cost be determined. Rather than determining sales based on production.
Einstein said: Even an idiot can make things complicated, only a wise man can make things simple.
05 Reinforcement Loop: Every great company has a high-speed rotating flywheel
What is a reinforcing loop? The cause strengthens the effect, and the effect in turn strengthens the cause, forming a loop. The reinforcing loop is strengthened round and round.
Three things to think about clearly
First, find your own flywheel
Small success depends on intelligence, big achievement depends on strengthening the circuit and finding your own flywheel.
Second, determine the first driving force
What is the first driving force? It must be consumers who benefit
Third, persist in promoting
Small achievements rely on ingenuity, and big achievements rely on strengthening circuits. The reinforcing loop rolls faster and faster, it is your own flywheel
06 Regulatory loop: Your plan is to take off, the world’s plan is to return
A regulatory loop is a causal loop in which the cause strengthens the effect, and the effect in turn weakens the cause, thereby resisting system change.
Pay attention to three points
First, break the “invisible ceiling”
Be sure to see it in advance and break it
Second, establish a “self-healing mechanism”
You should design self-healing regulatory loops for major risks
Third, let “those who hinder change” become beneficiaries of change
Your plan is to soar, the world's plan is to return. Wherever there is a reinforcing loop, within seven steps, there must be a regulating loop
07 Hysteresis effect: Why is there no perfect “recipe” for educating children?
There is a time lag between cause and effect. This time difference is the hysteresis effect
Three tips for identifying and dealing with “hysteresis effects”
First, the reason is not necessarily in the result attachment
Second, reduce lag and increase certainty
For example, after the speaker is pressed to start, it will light up or vibrate to give feedback that it has been started.
For example, if employees perform well, praise them immediately
Third, be wary of “violent shocks” caused by “hysteresis effects”
Bullwhip Effect Solution
Shorten: use "short-circuit economy', cut off supply chain links, even such as Dell's direct sales, Xiaomi's pre-sales, shorten the long whip
Smoothing: Arrange production based on historical data for a week, month or several years, smoothing the jitter of the whip
Price will never equal value. There is always a lag in adjustment by the invisible hand. Price fluctuates around value. This fluctuation is an opportunity for entrepreneurs that will never disappear.
Because there is a "lag effect," the cause is not necessarily near the effect. To learn why Google is successful today, you have to look at what it did 15 years ago, not what it has today.
08Building a model: Starting from scratch, how do entrepreneurs find their strategic potential?
Use the case of your own consulting company to demonstrate how to use the five system structural modules (variables, causal chains, reinforcing loops, regulating loops, and hysteresis effects) to build a complete business model.
5 things
1. Find the core stock: reputation
Identify important stocks through benchmarking and consultation
2. Find the key causal chain: reputation - ( ) > income
Find the causal chain that is most important to you, such as income, and infer the most important cause, such as reputation.
3. Find reinforcing loops (reputation, knowledge, works) to drive the flywheel of growth
As long as it doesn’t push the flywheel, don’t do it
Do not consume strategic resources on non-strategic opportunities
4. Find the regulatory loop (time limit) and break the ceiling of growth
5. Acknowledge the hysteresis effect and start a business when it is saturated
Invest strategic resources up front so that results can appear in advance and with certainty. For example, for each effect, design three causes, and then wait for time
Use public accounts, Weibo, and Douyin to promote the flywheel of reputation
Use business consulting, entrepreneurial communities, and entrepreneurial private boards to promote the flywheel of knowledge
Use offline classes, 5-minute business school online courses, and book publishing to promote the flywheel of works
If you want to check whether what a consulting company or a business school teacher says is really useful, just see if they use their own theories and methods to run their own business.
09 System experience: Complexity is the price of maturity
Three indicators to check whether your system model is healthy
1. Adaptability is the ability of the system to repair itself when suddenly encountering external shocks.
Use inventory to enhance system adaptability. For example, in the 5-minute business school, the model of writing and publishing one article lacks adaptability and maintains an inventory of 30 articles.
Adjustment loops can also be used to improve system adaptability, such as holding weekly meetings to continuously correct deviations in the execution plan.
A manager should spend 90% of his time communicating, and 90% of the communication should discuss risks and then quickly adjust.
2. Self-organization is the ability of the system to mutate itself in order to adapt to changes.
A chaotic and vibrant life is better than an orderly and lifeless one.
You can at least set up a "special zone", such as Haier's small and micro enterprises, Tencent's horse racing mechanism, and Huawei's Red Army and Blue Army, allowing new causal chains, new enhancement loops, and new lag effects to be tried in the chaotic special zone. Only in this way will you see surprises happen naturally.
3. Hierarchy is the ability to control system information storms by dividing the whole into parts.
There is no hierarchy, which only means you are still young. All nostalgia for super flatness is the nostalgia for childhood in adulthood.
A system that can cope with accidents, grow on its own, and has an orderly hierarchy is a healthy system.
Training Ground 1: Solving Problems
10 Restoring the major premise: It worked in the past, but it doesn’t work now. What should I do?
All problems are ultimately problems caused by the model; the real solutions are ultimately solved by changing the model.
It was effective in the past, but it is effective now. It must be because a hidden major premise it relies on has disappeared. At this time, the major premise must be restored.
How to restore? From three places, time premise, space premise and technical premise
11Breaking the border wall: Why does Nestlé’s revenue exceed BAT combined?
Boundary walls are rigid constraints and set system growth limits.
Four rigid constraints
Market size
The strength of your competitors determines how difficult it is for you to "reach" the largest market size
Resource limits
Try to build your business model on high-speed renewable resources, such as knowledge, processes, and patented technologies.
Regulations and policies
Operate compliantly as early as possible, otherwise the company will never grow
technical limitations
Once the product is good enough, the "rigid constraints" of technology have arrived.
Boundary walls are rigid constraints and set system growth limits.
12Install buffers: How to make rivers calmer?
Buffer is a stock specially used to smooth out fluctuations in inflow (inflow).
The essence of a buffer is a "stock" used to "slowly release instantaneous shocks"
A CEO who only improves efficiency is not a good CEO; a CEO who knows how to sacrifice a certain amount of efficiency and use necessary buffers to hedge against fluctuations and sudden death risks is a mature CEO
What necessary buffers should a mature CEO install to hedge against the risks of volatility and sudden death?
First, install a buffer to deal with “deficiency fluctuations”
Once it is lacking, it will cause fluctuations in inflow (in) volume that will bring risks to the system, which is called "deficiency fluctuation"
Second, install buffers to deal with “excess fluctuations”
Floods from upstream flows also pour down, placing an unbearable burden on the system. This is "excess fluctuation"
The buffer is an important tool to solve fluctuations, but remember that it is enough to use it, because the buffer has a cost and will also reduce the speed of the system to respond to changes.
Efficiency is the direction of business progress. But many of the ultimate pursuits of efficiency are actually giving up on buffers.
13 Crossing the critical point: It has always been good, but suddenly changes. How to manage "discontinuity"?
What is the tipping point? The essence of critical point is the switching between dominant structural modules
You should always pay attention to these four "critical points" and cross them at any time
First, crossing the qualitative change point
The so-called qualitative change refers to the sudden switching of the causal chain after the stock exceeds a threshold.
Second, crossing the tipping point
The so-called tipping point means that after the stock exceeds a threshold, a "forward reinforcement loop" is activated.
Third, crossing the extinction point
The so-called extinction point means that after the stock falls below a threshold, a "negative reinforcing loop" is activated, leading to collapse.
Fourth, cross the stall point
The so-called stall point means that after the stock increases to a threshold, a brake-type adjustment loop is activated.
There is no linear growth in this world. Lying in front of you are various "critical points" waiting for you to cross. If you cross over, keep moving forward; if you don't cross over, try again with a different life.
14 Find the fundamental solution: Ordinary people change the results, outstanding people change the reasons, and top experts change the model
Use "symptom solution" to solve problems and solve the "what" problem; use "cause solution" to solve problems and solve the "how" problem; use "fundamental solution" to solve problems and solve the "why" problem. (why) question.
What is the fundamental solution? Changing the model is the fundamental solution to all problems
Ordinary people change the results, outstanding people change the reasons, and top experts change the model. Changing the model is the fundamental solution to all problems.
Training Ground 2: Seeing Through People’s Hearts
15 Top and bottom share the same desire: How can I make my plan become the employee’s plan?
There are four systems in the world
1. Mechanical system: such as a clock, as a whole there is no consciousness.
2. Biological systems: The human body, cat body, and dog body are all biological systems. There are no individual heroes locally, only a collectivist spirit
3. Ecosystem: Cities, nature, and the universe are all ecosystems
4. Social system: It is the only system in which both systems and variables are conscious.
How to design a model of "the same desires from above and below" to manage people's hearts in the collective? You have to remember two key points
First, participation constraints
Conscious individuals must obtain benefits beyond expectations
Second, incentive compatibility
A plan to obtain more than expected returns is in line with the principle of "the more selfish the employees are, the more profitable the company will be"
Peter Drucker said: The essence of management is to inspire goodwill. Where does goodwill come from? Comes from: the same desire above and below
16Group Pressure: How to get employees to speak their true thoughts?
What is a group?
If there are more than three people, it is called a group. A group is a spontaneous organization that is less formal than a collective and more complex than an individual.
What is group pressure?
When members find that their opinions are in conflict with the group, they will experience tremendous pressure and voluntarily give up their opinions and accept the group's opinions. This is group pressure.
How to break group pressure?
First, the devil’s advocate
Second, brainstorming
Third, the nominal group method
1. Before any discussion, each member writes down his or her own opinion independently.
2. Then give your opinions to the group and explain your ideas to everyone one by one
3. Then start the discussion
4. Finally, each member ranks various ideas independently, and the one with the highest score makes the group decision
As an individual, everyone is right; as a group, everyone is wrong. Group pressure makes the company's three Zhuge Liangs no match for one cobbler
17 Structural tension: How to help employees build self-motivation?
Question: Use clear KPIs to motivate success, or use vague OKRs to protect morale?
The primary motivation for employees to work hard is: structural tension
This force that cannot help but narrow the gap between expectations and reality, otherwise it will be "like a fish stuck in one's throat, like a thorn in one's back" is "structural tension", which is the "meta-dynamic force" in the reinforcing loop system
How to achieve company goals through the "structural tension" of employees?
1. Use gaps to enhance personal efforts
2. Use personal efforts to enhance personal performance
3. Use personal performance to enhance company incentives
4. Use company rewards to narrow the gap
How to check
1. Gap, whether to enhance personal efforts
How big is the structural tension caused by the gap, and has it reached the limit of employees?
2. Whether personal efforts enhance personal performance
Putting performance that cannot be improved no matter how hard an employee works, in his personal indicators will also cause employees to lose "structural tension."
3. Personal performance, whether to enhance company rewards
At the end of the year, has every employee received the reward he “thinks” he deserves? Is it fair?
4. Can company rewards narrow the gap?
What employees really want is what the company should reward
The essence of all motivation is to first design the "gap", and then use the "structural tension" in people's hearts caused by the gap to achieve the goal.
18 Entrepreneurial heart: I don’t care about winning or losing, I just like competing
To work is to exchange certain abilities for certain returns; to start a business is to use uncertain risks to gamble for uncertain returns. When you start a business, you can’t reap a guaranteed entrepreneurial return. The only thing you can be sure of gaining is the entrepreneurial process itself.
The heart of entrepreneurship is the love for the uncertain entrepreneurial process rather than the certain entrepreneurial returns.
Use three black boxes to test whether your candidates have entrepreneurial heart
The black box of change: face it with learning
They will be excited when they encounter the black box of change. Oh my god, they can learn something new again.
The Black Box of Frustration: Face it with Fighting Spirit
Facing the black box of frustration, "Oh my God, this thing didn't happen? My fault, my fault, there must be something I ignored. This matter is challenging and interesting. I will prepare for another round."
Power black box: face it with persistence
If you have motivation, sprint; if you don’t have motivation, persist. The heart of entrepreneurship is the heart that cannot stop after a lesson
To work is to use certain abilities in exchange for certain returns; to start a business is to use uncertain risks to gamble for uncertain returns.
19. Changing people’s hearts: It’s not about comparing one’s feelings to others’ feelings, nor is it about speaking sincerely.
Changing the model of people’s hearts, the three most basic ways
1. Activate the positive reinforcement loop
Make an excel sheet, and employees can fill in their performance for the day and immediately see how much bonuses they can get for the current month, this quarter and the whole year, accurate to the minute.
2. Cut off the negative reinforcement loop
Announce each employee's annual goals and assessment methods to the entire company
The CEO sends emails to all employees every month to communicate direction, strategy, and organizational adjustments.
Weekly meetings must be held to constantly correct the direction
Open employee forums so that positive feedback can be spread and negative feedback can dispel rumors.
Each manager and employee is required to have 1:1 communication every month (the purpose of communication is information transparency)
3. Add safety adjustment loop
Small companies can use it to eat, drink and travel by car
Medium-sized companies can use travel, annual meetings, and standardized vacation systems
Large companies can even buy EAP (psychological counseling services) for their employees
The so-called "changing people's hearts" is to change the relationship between people and surrounding elements, that is, to change the "model", so that the same heart can produce different behaviors.
Training Ground 3: Predicting the Future
20 Predicting the future: Without prediction, there is no decision-making
How to predict? Use base model, and model group:
Blocked model group: If the expected reinforcing loop encounters an unexpected regulatory loop, growth will be blocked.
tragedy of the commons
If the benefits of both parties are based on robbing limited public resources, it will lead to the tragedy that the benefits of each other will eventually drop to 0.
growth limit
Rapid growth can slow, stall, or decline if it triggers a regulatory loop that inhibits growth.
Growth and underinvestment
If rapid growth leads to the neglect of R&D, production, investment and other capabilities, it will further lead to slowdown, stagnation, decline, or even decline.
Out-of-control model group: If the expected regulatory loop encounters an unexpected reinforcing loop, the situation will be out of control.
Abandoning the basics and seeking the last
If we adopt a temporary solution to solve the problem, we will be further and further away from the fundamental solution.
Drink poison to quench thirst
If we solve a problem with a solution that has serious side effects, the situation will get worse and worse.
unexpected enemy
If our actions accidentally hurt our allies, we will confront each other and both sides will lose.
Take-all model group: If the expected reinforcing circuit encounters an unexpected reinforcing circuit, the winner takes all.
The rich get richer
If both parties activate reinforcing loops in a system with limited resources, the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer.
Locked model group: If the expected regulatory loop encounters an unexpected regulatory loop, it will be a zero-sum game.
cutthroat competition
If both sides aim to surpass their opponents, the competition will be pushed to a level that no one expects.
target erosion
If we achieve unattainable goals by lowering our goals, it will lead to lower and lower goals and muddle along.
Business consultants are not gods, but they have the formula to solve the "future". If you put it in, you will see the answer.
21Hindered Model Group: Why did it start out promising but end up struggling?
The essence of the tragedy of the commons is this: a set of reinforcing loops that eat more and occupy more encounter an adjustment loop with limited resources.
How to crack it? Privatize public resources, or charge for bidding, to cut off the reinforcing loop of unlimited occupation of public resources.
The essence of the upper limit of growth is: a reinforcing circuit that is making great progress, encountering an adjustment circuit that is suffering from high altitudes.
how to respond? Look for the "second S-curve" as early as possible. When the growth of your cash cow business encounters regulatory loops that inhibit changes in demand, technical bottlenecks, etc., you have to tell yourself: There is no one-size-fits-all product that is popular everywhere.
The essence of growth and underinvestment is this: a reinforcing loop of rapid growth encounters a regulating loop of underinvestment
How to break? Standing in a period of saturation and a period of lack of investment. Huawei invests 10% of its revenue in research and development every year
22 Out-of-control Model Group: Why do the more eager you are for success, the less likely you are to accomplish anything?
The essence of abandoning the fundamental solution is that a regulatory circuit of the fundamental solution encounters an enhancement circuit that is suppressed by the symptomatic solution because of its slow effect. In the end, the problem remains the same, or even gets worse, until it collapses
Just because cold medicine is cheaper, you can’t stop going to the gym
The essence of drinking poison to quench thirst is that a regulatory circuit that works in the short term activates a reinforcement circuit that deteriorates in the long term. After returning to the light, the lamp ran out of oil and went out of control.
In this world, what is placed in front of us is usually not the right choice, but the wrong choice. It's the right choice and the easy choice. And easy choices are often poisonous.
The essence of an unexpected enemy is this: a regulatory loop that improves one's own performance accidentally activates a reinforcing loop that hurts an ally. Former allies turned against each other and eventually both sides suffered losses.
When an ally becomes an unexpected enemy, it must be because one party uses a plan that only benefits itself. As a manager, you need to coordinate
In this world, what is placed in front of us is usually not the right choice or the wrong choice. It's the right choice and the easy choice. And easy choices are often poisonous.
23 Take-all model group: Can a product that is 10 times better than WeChat kill WeChat?
The essence of "the rich get richer" is that when the total amount of resources is limited, the positive reinforcement loop that grabs the most resources will activate the negative reinforcement loops of all other competitors, resulting in the winner taking all.
Don’t be obsessed with fighting, don’t cry over spilled milk, move to the next battlefield, and build a new “positive reinforcement circuit.”
In the business world, what are the “battlefields of limited resources”?
First, users
Second, capital
Third, scale
Fourth, brand
24 Locked Model Group: What you call pragmatism may just be goal erosion
The essence of vicious competition is that your self-repairing regulatory circuit hurts others, thereby strengthening the other party's regulatory circuit, which in turn hurts you.
How to crack: Make the benefits of cooperation greater than the temptation to betray, build some kind of tacit agreement, and stabilize the equilibrium
There are two ways to close the gap between reality and goals: improving behavior and lowering goals. When encountering resistance by changing the behavioral adjustment loop to narrow the gap, instead reducing the goal adjustment loop to narrow the gap, this is goal erosion.
The goal must be clear, SMART principle
The goal is eroded little by little. You become more and more comfortable, but you are further and further away from the real goal. Only mediocre people are always at their best.
25 Forecasting Exercise: No one can see the future, but someone can see what is affecting it
Every industry says we are special. However, we often overestimate our particularities and underestimate our commonalities. In the face of the nature of business, the differences between industries are actually very small; in the face of basic models, history always repeats itself again and again.
Training Ground Four: Lifelong Practice
26 Formula Thinking: "Stealing" the Map from God
The formula of restaurant business logic-sales funnel formula
Sales = traffic * conversion rate * customer unit price * repurchase rate
The short-term business of a restaurant depends on traffic, and the long-term business depends on repurchase rate.
User loyalty = (value I provide - value he provides) Transfer cost
The so-called customer loyalty may not be because you are good enough, but because he finds it troublesome to move out.
What is scattered thinking? Scattered thinking means relying on hard thinking and meditation, waiting for inspiration to suddenly appear. Scattered thinking likes to say "Oh, by the way, do you think this will work?" This kind of thinking habit is obtained by accident, the quality is unreliable, and it is easy to miss everything.
To gain extraordinary insights, we must break away from scatter-point thinking and establish formula thinking.
What is formula thinking? It is to use mathematical formulas to express the "connection relationship" between "elements". Masters extract formulas from system models, and ordinary people stand on the shoulders of masters to learn formulas. The formula is the map "stolen" from God by the masters using their insight.
Establish formula thinking, then reasonably estimate each variable in the formula, express the connection relationship between elements, and steal the map from God.
The starting point of all business is user benefit
27-level thinking: How to look down at problems like a top expert?
The terrible thing about partial thinking is that it allows us to win a battle with gratification but lose the whole war with compassion.
What is hierarchical thinking? Hierarchical thinking is to use the thinking method of "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts" to gain insight into the layered system models.
Four levels of factors determine the rise and fall of an enterprise.
The first level: Era, when the era abandons you, you won’t even say goodbye.
Second level: Strategy, don’t use tactical diligence to cover up strategic laziness
The third level: governance, the structure is wrong, nothing is right
The fourth level: Management, the essence of management is to inspire goodwill
Case
Five levels of user experience
Micro perception layer, role framework layer, resource layer, capability circle layer, strategic existence layer
four levels of organization
Professional community, community of interests, community of cause, community of destiny
four levels of communication
Phrases, facts, opinions, feelings
three levels of happiness
Competitive happiness (happiness when you are better than others), conditional happiness (happiness when conditions are met), unconditional happiness (peace)
Maslow's five levels of needs
Physiological needs, safety needs, love and belonging, respect and self-actualization
Three levels of branding
Category, quality, taste
three levels of goals
tactics, campaign, strategy
Three levels of problem solving
Symptom solution, cause solution, fundamental solution
28 Evolutionary thinking: Which version of Google do you want to learn?
People who think calmly look at changing things with an unchanging perspective. What they don't know is that the honey in another stage may be arsenic in this stage.
How to practice your evolutionary thinking throughout your life
look past
look now
look at the future
Evolutionary thinking is to add a timeline to everything, and then observe how things change on the timeline. What is right one second may be a huge fallacy the next second
29Three sword techniques: reserve models, keep questioning, and use more metaphors
three sword techniques
reserve model
Keep asking
Use more metaphors
Three steps to draw a good analogy
1. Find the essence of the strange thing you want to describe
2. In your model library, match things that have the same essence and are familiar to everyone.
3. Then use this familiar thing to explain the unfamiliar thing
The ability to draw analogies is particularly "advanced" and requires a person to understand the essence of two things at the same time. For example, it is actually the ability to transfer knowledge. The highest insight is actually fluid and transferable.
30 Fear all things: We can never become God
Three boundaries that limit human insight
The disaster of complexity
probabilistic causation
Having insight into the nature of the system and building the correct model does not mean that you will definitely succeed. There is still a probability for what you have to defeat next.
cognitive limits
Invisible hand: Everyone pursues their own private interests, and the public will receive the greatest welfare
Every model is drawn and ready to be broken. We choose to use a model to explain the past and predict the future, not because it is "eternally correct," but because it is "useful today."