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Chapter 11 Project Risk Management
This chapter mainly includes the following contents: Overview Planning Risk Management Planning Process Group Identify Risks Planning Process Group. Conduct Qualitative Risk Analysis Planning Process Group Real-time Child Determination Risk Analysis Planning Process Group Planning Risk Response Planning Process Group Planning Risk Response Planning Process Group Implement Risk Response Execution Process Group Monitoring Risk Monitoring Process Group Everyone is welcome to learn and communicate ~
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Chapter 11 Project Risk Management
- bacteria
This is a mind map about bacteria, and its main contents include: overview, morphology, types, structure, reproduction, distribution, application, and expansion. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
- Plant asexual reproduction
This is a mind map about plant asexual reproduction, and its main contents include: concept, spore reproduction, vegetative reproduction, tissue culture, and buds. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
- Reproductive development of animals
This is a mind map about the reproductive development of animals, and its main contents include: insects, frogs, birds, sexual reproduction, and asexual reproduction. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
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- Outline
Chapter 11 Project Risk Management
Overview
The goal is to increase the probability or impact of positive risks and reduce the probability or impact of responsible risks, thereby increasing the likelihood of project success.
Development Trends in Risk Management
non-event risks
variability risk
There are uncertainties in some key aspects. Productivity may be higher or lower than target
Unusual weather conditions may occur. Can be handled through Monte Carlo analysis. The test finds more or fewer errors than expected
ambiguity risk
There is uncertainty about what may happen in the future. Insufficient knowledge may impact the project's ability to achieve its goals
Little understanding of the requirements or elements of the technical solution. Future developments in the regulatory framework.
election
Project inherent system complexity. Incremental development, prototyping or simulation can also be used
Define gaps in knowledge or understanding and fill gaps by accessing expert advice or best practices
project resilience
Respond to unexpected risks. Set aside a reasonable budget and time for emergencies. Strong change management
Project teams with clear mandates and trustworthiness complete work within agreed limits. Pay attention to early warning signs to identify emerging risks as early as possible
Explicitly seek input from stakeholders to identify where scope or strategy of the project can be adjusted
Integrated risk management
Factors to consider when tailoring. Project size.Project complexity. Project Importance. development method
Agile or adaptive environments. Dealing with rapid change requires an adaptive approach to project management. Risks should be identified, analyzed and managed during each iteration
Planning Risk Management Planning Process Group
Ensure the level, approach and visibility of risk management are commensurate with the level of project risk and the project's importance to the organization and other stakeholders
enter
Project charter. High-level project description and boundaries eHigh-level requirements and risks eProject management plan
Project documents. Stakeholder register. The role of stakeholders in the project. Attitude towards project risks
Business environment factors. Overall risk threshold set by the organization or key stakeholders
Organizational process assets. The organization’s risk policy…..
.Level of authority required for decision-making. Lessons Learned Knowledge Base
Tools & Techniques
Expert judgment. Meeting.
The preparation of the risk management plan can be a task at the project kick-off meeting
data analysis. Stakeholder analysis. Determine the risk appetite of project stakeholders through stakeholder analysis
output
risk management plan
Risk management strategies. General approach to managing risks on this project. methodology
Roles and Responsibilities. Leaders, sponsors and team members for each risk management activity
funds
.Use plans for emergency reserves and management reserves. Schedule
risk category
Stakeholder risk appetite. Acceptable overall project risk exposure level. Develop probability and impact definitions
Risk probability and impact definition. Probability and Impact Matrix . report format . Tracking .
Identify Risks Planning Process Group
Document existing individual project risks, as well as the sources of overall project risks; and assemble relevant information so that the project team can appropriately respond to identified risks.
enter
project management plan
plan. Requirements/Schedule/Cost/Quality/Resources/Risk Management Plan
Benchmark..
Scope benchmark.
progress baseline. cost baseline
project files
Assumptions.Log.Cost Estimate.Duration Estimate.Problem.Log
Lessons Learned Register. Requirements Document .
Resource Requirements eStakeholder Register
protocol. Milestone. Period. Contract type. Acceptance criteria. Rewards and penalties
Procurement documents. Seller performance reports. Approved change requests. Check related information
business environment factors
Published materials, including business risk databases or checklists. Academic research materials. Benchmarking results
Industry research materials for similar projects
organizational process assets
Project documentation, including actual data.
Organizational and project process control information
Format of risk description.
Checklist for previous similar projects
Tools & Techniques
expert judgment
data collection
Brainstorming. Interview. Checklist. Commonly used as a reminder. Based on historical information
data analysis
Root Cause Analysis. Analysis of assumptions and constraints. SWOT analysis
File analysis
A number of risks can be identified through a structural review of project documents.
Plan. Assumptions
Constraints.
Archives of past projects. contract.
protocol.
Technical documents
Interpersonal and team skills. Guidance. Can improve the effectiveness of many techniques used to identify sources of risk.
Tip list
PESTLE.
TECOP. Can be used as a framework to assist project teams in developing ideas
VUCA.
variability, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity
Meeting. risk seminar
output
risk register
Record details of identified individual project risks
List of identified risks.
2. Person responsible for potential risks.
. List of potential risk response measures
risk report
Sources of overall risk. Overview information on identified individual project risks
Project file updates
hypothesis.log. Issues.Log.Lessons Learned Register
Conduct Qualitative Risk Analysis Planning Process Group
The process of prioritizing risks by assessing the probability and impact of individual project risks, as well as other characteristics, to provide a basis for subsequent analysis or action.
The main role is to focus on high priority risks, subjective
Before each iteration starts
enter
Project management plan.
Risk management plan. Organizational process assets. Information on similar completed projects
Project Documente Assumptions. Log eRisk Register e
Stakeholder register
Business environment factors. Industry research materials for similar projects. Published materials, including business risk databases or checklists
Tools & Techniques
Expert judgment. Interpersonal and Team Skills .Facilitation.Meetings. risk seminar
data analysis
Risk data quality assessment. Evaluate the accuracy and reliability of data regarding individual project risks. Risk probability and impact assessment
Assessment of other risk parameters
Urgencye
Short time indicates high urgency.
Proximity.
Short time indicates high proximity
incubation period.
Short time indicates short incubation period, strategic influence and closeness. Risks that are considered important have a high degree of closeness
Connectivity e If the risk occurs it is easy to monitor, monitorability is high e Manageability .Monitorability
Basis for risk classification. Sources of risk. Affected project areas. and other utility types. Stage of project. project budget. Roles and Responsibilities
Data performance
Probability and Impact Matrix
A table that maps the probability of each risk occurring to the impact on the project objectives if it occurs.
Prioritize risks based on their probability and impact. Within 2 parameters
Hierarchical type. More than 2 parameters classify risks. Bubble charts can display three-dimensional data
output
Project files updated. hypothesis.log. problem.log. Risk register. Designate risk owners. risk report
Real-time Quantitative Risk Analysis Planning Process Group
Quantify overall project risk exposure, providing additional quantitative risk information to support risk response planning. Not required, but if adopted it will continue throughout the project.
enter
Project management plan. Risk management plan. Scope benchmark.
Progress benchmark.
Cost basis. Business environment factors. organizational process assets
Project documents. Assumptions/Estimation Basis/Cost Estimate/Cost Forecast/Duration Estimate/Milestone List/Resource Requirements/Risk Register/Risk Report/Progress Forecast
Tools & Techniques
Expert judgment.Interpersonal and team skills.Guidance
The expression of uncertainty is e triangular distribution.
normal distribution.
Lognormal distribution. Beta distribution. uniform distribution or discrete distribution
data analysis
simulation. Monte Carlo analysis
cost risk analysis
Project cost estimate as input to estimating
Schedule risk analysis
Schedule network diagrams and duration estimates as input to the simulation
Criticality analysis can be performed to determine which activities have the greatest impact on the critical path
Sensitivity analysis. Helps determine which individual project risks have the greatest potential impact on project outcomes. tornado diagram
Decision tree analysis. Calculate the expected monetary value of each branch through probability.
Impact diagram. Graphical aids for decision making under uncertainty
output
risk report
An assessment of overall project risk exposure. Individual project risk priority checklist. Trends in quantitative risk analysis results/risk response recommendations
Results of detailed probabilistic analysis of the project
Required contingency reserves. Key drivers of overall project risk
A list of individual project risks or sources of uncertainty that have the greatest impact on the critical path
Planning Risk Response Planning Process Group
Develop appropriate approaches to overall project risks and individual project risks; will also allocate resources and add related activities to project documents and project management plans as needed
enter
Project management plan. Resource/Risk Management Plan . Cost Baseline . Business environment factors. Risk appetite of key stakeholders. risk threshold
project files. Lessons learned/risks/stakeholder register. Project schedule . The project team dispatches work orders. Resources.Calendar. risk report
Organizational process assets. Risk management plan, risk register and risk report templates. Historical database. Knowledge base of lessons learned from similar projects
Tools & Techniques
Expert judgment. Data collection.Interviews. Interpersonal and team skills. guide
Threat response strategy
Report
Exceeding the authority of the project manager ◎ Such as company-level or organizational-level risks
avoid
The probability drops to 0%. May involve changes to the project management plan or negatively impacted objectives
Suitable for high-priority threats with a high probability of occurrence and serious consequences.
Avoidance measures
Eliminate the cause of the threat. Extend the schedule. Change project strategy. narrow down
Clarify requirementse
Obtain information e Improve communication e Acquire know-how
transfer
Buy insurance and transfer it to a third party. Outsource the project. The most effective way to transfer financial risks is to transfer them
transfer method.
Buy insurancee
Performance bond.
Guarantee.
Guarantee. sign the agreement
alleviate
Reduce probability, reduce impact
Mitigation measures.
Simpler process, more tests, more reliable sales
Prototype development.
redundant parts
accept
Acknowledge the existence of threats and do not take proactive measures, suitable for low-priority risks
initiative
Establish emergency reserves
Set aside time, money, or resources to respond to emerging threats
passive.
No action, review regularly to ensure no significant changes have occurred
Opportunity coping strategies
Report
Opportunities outside the project scope. The proposed response is beyond the project manager's authority
open up
Increase the probability to 100%. Seize high-priority opportunities
pioneering measures. Adopt new technology or technology upgrades to save costs or time. Allocate the most capable resources in the organization to shorten the construction period
share
Shift responsibility for responding to opportunities to a third party. Assign new risk owners to shared opportunities
Share measures
9. Build a partnership. Collaborate as a team. special company or joint venture
improve
Increase the probability of opportunities occurring. Increase resources to complete activities early.
accept
Acknowledge that opportunities exist but do not proactively take action for low-priority opportunities
Take the initiative to build emergency reserves. Set aside time, money or resources. Passive. Not proactive. Opportunities are reviewed regularly.
Planning Risk Response Planning Process Group
Develop appropriate approaches to overall project risks and individual project risks; will also allocate resources and add related activities to project documents and project management plans as needed
Tools & Techniques
emergency response strategies
Contingency Plan or Bounce Plan. Management Reserve e Contingency Measures Unknown - Unknown Risks. Use of contingency measures after failure of the rebound plan
Contingency Reserve e-Contingency Plan Known-Unknown Risks e-Contingency Plan uses bounce back plan after failure.
Bounce Plan Known – Unknown Risk
Overall project risk response strategy
avoid
Eliminate high-risk work within the project scope.
Cancel the project, the most extreme risk avoidance measure
open up
Overall project risk has a significant positive impact and exceeds the agreed project risk threshold
Add high-yield work to the project. Consult with key stakeholders to modify the risk threshold of the project
transfer or share
The level of overall project risk is high and the organization is unable to effectively address it
If the overall project risk is negative, a transfer strategy is needed
If the overall project risk is highly positive, it is shared among multiple parties
measure
Form a joint venture or special purpose vehicle. Subcontract key project tasks
Establish a collaborative business structure where buyers and sellers share overall project risk
reduce or improve
Change the level of overall project risk to optimize the likelihood of achieving project objectives
measure
Re-plan the project. Change project scope and boundaries
Adjust project priorities. Change resource allocation. Adjust delivery time
Accept. Take initiative. Contingency reserve. Set aside time, money, or resources. Passive. Periodically reviewed.
Data analysis. Alternatives analysis. Cost-benefit analysis. Decision-making. Multi-criteria decision analysis
output
change request
Project Management Plan Update
Progress management plan.
cost management plan e
Quality management plan.
resource management plan
Procurement management plan.
Scope benchmark.
Progress benchmark.
cost basis
project document renew
Assumptions. Logs. Cost forecasts. Lessons learned register. eProject schedule. Project team dispatch work orders.
risk register
Agreed coping strategies. .... . Triggering conditions, signs and early warning signals for risk occurrence
contingency plan, and the risk triggers required to activate the plan
Bounce back planning, used when a risk occurs and primary response measures are insufficient
Secondary risks directly caused by the implementation of risk response measures
risk report
Document risk exposures and agreed responses to high priority risks. Expected changes after implementing these measures
Implement Risk Response Execution Process Group
Ensure agreed-upon risk responses are executed as planned to manage overall project risk exposure, minimize individual project threats, and maximize individual project opportunities
enter
Project management plan. Risk Management Plan .Project Document. Lessons Learned Register.
Risk register.
risk report
Organizational process assets. Knowledge base of lessons learned from similar projects completed
Tools & Techniques
Expert judgment. Interpersonal and team skills. Influence . To encourage designated risk owners to take required actions
project management information system
Includes schedule, resource and cost software
Used to ensure that the agreed risk response plan and related activities, together with other project activities, are integrated into the overall project
output
change request
After risk responses are implemented, change requests may be made to the cost baseline and schedule base or project management plan components
Change requests should be reviewed and processed through the implementation of an overall change control process
Project File Updates.Issue.Log. Lessons learned register. The project team dispatches work orders. Risk register. risk report
Monitoring Risk Monitoring Process Group
The process of overseeing the implementation of the agreed risk response plan, tracking identified risks, identifying and analyzing new risks, and evaluating the effectiveness of risk management throughout the project period
enter
Project management plan. Risk Management Plan . project files .
Issues. Log. Lessons Learned Register. Risk Register. Risk Report
Work performance datae include information on project statuse Risk responses that have been implementedE Risks that have occurredE Risks that are still active and closed
job performance report
Obtained by analyzing performance measurement results to provide information about project work performance
Deviation analysis results.
Earned value data. Forecast data
Tools & Techniques
data analysis
Technical performance analysis. Technical results achieved during project execution compared with plan. Weight.Processing time. Number of defects. storage capacity
Reserve analysis
Compare remaining contingency reserves to the amount of remaining risk to determine whether remaining reserves are still reasonable
Burndown charts can be used to show the consumption of response reserves
audit. Can be used to assess the effectiveness of risk management processes
Meeting
Risk review meeting: Discuss issues arising from the occurrence of risks. Summarize lessons learned that can be applied to subsequent phases of the current project or similar projects in the future
Review the effectiveness of risk responses.
Risk reviews should be scheduled regularly to examine and document the effectiveness of risk responses in addressing overall project risks and identified individual project risks.
Identify new risks, including secondary risks arising from agreed responses, and reassess current risks. Close obsolescence risk
output
Job performance information. Project Management Plan Update . Project files updated. hypothesis/question.log . Lessons Learned/Risk Register . risk report
Change Requests. Recommended corrective and preventive actions. Review and address by implementing a holistic change control process
Organizational process asset updates. Risk management plan, risk register and risk report templates. risk breakdown structure