This different layering of cognition determines the quality of subsequent judgments.

If we can increase our cognitive dimension and see problems from a higher level than others, it is what we usually call "high dimensions and low dimensions"

High-dimensional cognition is often close to the starting point of the causal chain, while low-dimensional cognition is often close to the result of the phenomenon.

If we can start from the phenomenon and continue to ask about the premise of the existence of the problem, starting from more basic and basic factors, we can actually see the "structural force" that really works behind it.

If a person only thinks technically, he will eventually feel confused about the development direction of technology.

If you only have scientific thinking, you will not be able to explore the meaning of science itself. Humanistic thinking is needed

And only by adding humanistic thinking can we form a correct and complete cognitive architecture

That is, implementing strategies that appear to be effective at the moment may lead to long-term, harmful consequences.

If we don’t understand this, we have no way of understanding what effective strategies are in life, let alone accumulating and applying mental models.

The so-called "time and space scale where effective strategies are applicable" means that if we think a strategy is effective, we must ask ourselves, is it effective in the short term or in the long term? Is it effective locally or globally?

Because strategies that are effective in the micro environment may be completely ineffective or even harmful in the macro system.

Putting short-term effective strategies into a long-term perspective may also bring negative results.

If you want to solve a specific problem, you can't just talk about the macro principles, but you have to go into the micro details to solve the problem.

If you want to deal with strategic and long-term choices, you cannot judge the effectiveness of the immediate strategy, but you must judge the effectiveness from a longer-term and more macro perspective.

We must choose different strategies based on the scope and period of the problem we want to solve.

It’s because most of the complex problems in our world are non-linear, macro phenomena are not a simple superposition of micro behaviors, and long-term results are not a simple amplification of short-term results.

To judge long-term, global issues such as trends and system changes, we must separate ourselves from daily life experience and look at the long-term macro system.

When looking for the cause of a specific problem, we often have to avoid analyzing and thinking only at the level where the problem occurs, and we must further sink into the microscopic subsystems below where the problem occurs to find the cause.

The real cause of economic growth is not those macro factors, but the structural reorganization of micro products, technologies, markets, raw materials, organizations and other elements that make up the economic macro system.

Introducing an unprecedented "new combination" of production factors and production conditions into the production system, it is the new combination of these micro factors that achieves innovation and promotes economic growth.

In the field of history, French historian Braudel once proposed three time scales for recording history.

in the field of biology

in the military field

In Business Strategy Methodology

Sometimes, even if we work hard on the "point", the impact will not be as great as if we work hard on the "face".

When we consciously think about problems from such different scale perspectives, we will find that many disciplines that seem far apart sometimes seem completely different from a micro perspective, but when we observe them on a grand scale, we will find that the underlying With amazing consistency

In this way, we can connect seemingly unrelated thinking models at the macro scale, thereby realizing interdisciplinary attacks on multiple thinking models at different scales and finding new solutions.

For details, please refer to the reading notes of "The Fifth Discipline"

If a gambler has some inside information to bet on horse racing, but this inside information may not be completely correct, what should the gambler do at this time?

By studying information theory, he found that gamblers can determine the optimal betting ratio when knowing the winning rate and odds, thereby maximizing their long-term compound returns.

Here, he created a new quantitative investment strategy based on the Kelly formula and established the first quantitative hedge fund, opening a new chapter in human investment using quantitative strategies. For this reason, Mr. Thorp is known as the "Father of Quantitative Investment" "

The proportion of money you should invest = (Possible money earned - Possible money lost) / (Possible profit multiple × Possible loss multiple)

If you haven’t understood it yet, let’s use Buffett’s words to explain his investment method: “Multiply the probability of loss by the amount of possible loss, then multiply the probability of profit by the amount of possible profit, and finally use the latter minus Go to the former

The core of Kelly's formula is four variables: probability of success, income after success, probability of failure, and loss caused by failure.

If you carefully analyze the Kelly formula, you will find that although it is difficult for us to accurately predict the probability of success and failure of things, we can often make more accurate judgments about the possible gains and losses of things.

Kelly's formula can actually be greatly simplified. We don't need such accurate probability judgments to make important choices.

The opportunity for huge non-linear results, this is the key moment we are looking for

One is top-down thinking, the other is bottom-up (practical) thinking

The so-called top-down approach is to first analyze macro trends, then sort out possible directions, and finally look for non-linear opportunities for structural changes from these directions.

The advantage is that we may see some opportunities outside our life circle, but the disadvantage is that we need to spend dedicated time thinking, sorting out, investigating and researching, which is relatively energy-consuming.

From the bottom up, we actually start from each specific matter and think about the future development of this matter and whether it is worthy of huge changes.

Although it seems a bit passive, because we are more familiar with the things we come into contact with every day and various background situations, we can make judgments without doing too much basic work, so it may be more practical for most people.

Let’s see if there is any possibility of longer-term development of this matter in the future.

If you need to invest your energy regularly, ask yourself if you love and approve of it in your heart

It’s hard to stick to something you don’t like for a long time

In the long run, the driving force behind competitive advantage comes from cognition

Therefore, you should think about whether the things you invest in can enhance your deeper understanding of some issues.

Can marginal costs continue to decrease, or can returns have the effect of compound interest growth?

In other words, is it possible that the more we do something, the lower the cost?

Essentially, it is to analyze and judge whether there is a possibility of non-linear growth in the income of this matter.

Black swan is a concept proposed by American financial investor Taleb. It refers to something that has a very small probability of happening in our lives, but once it happens, it will have a great impact on our lives.

A positive black swan is when something happens that has a positive impact on us.

One angle to solve the problem, but the problems in reality are often very complex, and there are great limitations in understanding the problem from only one angle.

If we are looking for effective strategies on "how to increase product sales", we can find many thinking models, such as 4P theory, 4C theory and the growth hacking model that has emerged in recent years.

If we want to solve this problem across disciplines, we cannot look for the best strategy in this profession, but should zoom in on all human industries to see what different strategies they have discovered when solving this problem.

we can still think

Give you a deeper understanding of the applicable conditions of different thinking models

“Top-level design” solves the problem of strategic direction

“Top-level design” is about predicting changes in the macro environment

If we can proactively think about the reasons behind these conflicts, it will actually enhance our understanding and application of seemingly different or even conflicting thinking models.

If we want to truly understand a certain type of complex problem deeply, from the perspective of building a global understanding, the type and number of multiple thinking models we need to master must have both the breadth and depth of thinking required to solve such problems.

holistic way of thinking

Effective multiple thinking model system = (breadth of thinking) × (depth of thinking) required to solve complex problems

The core idea of ​​physics is to study the various laws of matter itself, the core idea of ​​mathematics is to accurately describe the world, and the core idea of ​​chemistry is to study the laws of changes after interactions between substances.

Example

These disciplines explain the laws that appear in life groups based on the material world.

Since each of us lives in a "group", the "evolutionary laws", "economic laws" and "social laws" shown in the group are of great help to us in thinking about life issues.

In fact, most of the problems in our lives will use the principles of economics, sociology and even biology.

These disciplines study the laws that complex systems display when the "group" is extremely complex.

Considering that the society we live in in the future will be an increasingly connected and complex network system, it is extremely important to master the way of thinking about complex systems.

We often say that choice is more important than effort, and strategy is more important than tactics. Being able to find the basis for strategic choices in complex phenomena can often be inspired by the study of complex systems.

We not only live in the material world, but also in the spiritual world

Therefore, mastering the way of thinking to understand the spiritual world constitutes another important cornerstone of our multiple thinking model.

Almost all issues related to experience and spirituality in our lives can be traced back to these disciplines

If we think about the value of different disciplines from the perspective of thinking methods, we will find that there is actually a corresponding set of thinking methods behind each discipline.

Example

How to do

The starting point for the establishment of this knowledge system is neither a certain discipline nor a certain knowledge (or thinking model), but a new element that was not found in the past knowledge system: basic questions

Because all mental models are effective strategies for solving a certain problem, then the questions, not the answers, should govern knowledge.

This knowledge system does not directly connect problems and knowledge, but introduces a new element between the two: way of thinking.

This is also the key to establishing connections between mental models in different fields as we mentioned earlier.

In order for this mixed force to exert its combat effectiveness, the first problem that must be solved is: everyone must have a common combat goal.

In other words, knowledge in different fields should solve similar basic problems

The so-called ability to "integrate" interdisciplinary knowledge essentially means the ability to see what similar problems different fields face and what effective strategies different fields can learn from each other when dealing with these similar problems.

The first basic problem encountered in the development of biology: Where to start analyzing complex and diverse organisms

The second basic question encountered in the development of biology: What are the basic units that form biological individuals?

The third basic question encountered in the development of biology: What is the relationship between cells and different organisms?

The fourth basic question encountered in the development of biology: How did such a wide variety of biological populations arise?

The fifth basic question encountered in the development of biology: Why do organisms mutate?

The sixth basic question encountered in the development of biology: How inheritance is carried out

The seventh basic question encountered in the development of biology: How genes work

To understand a problem in a complex system, we need to approach it from different perspectives

understanding of complex issues

To deal with complex problems, we need to learn more from interdisciplinary fields.

What is the basic issue behind this question?

What is the core idea to solve this basic problem?

Are there any common structural frameworks for analyzing this type of problem?

The so-called "structured thinking" is different from the way we usually start with the details when solving problems. It is a global perspective that pays attention to the core and structure of the problem, and then uses this as a basis to understand the details.

Example

The biggest advantage of using this kind of structured thinking is that we can come up with ideas when we encounter problems, which greatly improves our efficiency in solving problems.

How structured thinking integrates various information and knowledge

Analyzing the rise of Pinduoduo from the perspective of “timing”

The impact of “geographical convenience” on the rise of Pinduoduo

The impact of “Rhehe” on the rise of Pinduoduo

Almost every problem has a reason for framing

Models involved

Use basic questions as the starting point for thinking, and use thinking methods to open up cross-domain knowledge

The ABC theory proposed by the famous American psychologist Albert Ellis can explain

How we respond (C) to external problems (A) does not essentially depend on the problems we encounter (A), but on our beliefs, perceptions, and interpretations (B)

To do this, you must know the important principles of important subjects and use them regularly

Use them all, not just a few. Most people only use the mental model of one subject they have studied, such as economics, and try to use one method to solve all problems.

The starting point for learning thinking models is not specific knowledge, but problem solving

A mental model that doesn’t know what problem to solve is just an isolated dead concept.

All strategies that can consistently and effectively solve problems can be called mental models

Only those strategies that can be truly used when encountering problems are your own thinking models.

Otherwise, if you memorize a lot of mental models but don’t know what problems can be solved, you will just ignore the basics and focus on the last.

When encountering a problem, you only think about how to solve a specific problem, but will refine more general methods based on the answers to specific questions.

That is to abstract the answers from specific problems and abstract them into effective strategies to guide the solution of similar problems in the future.

Keep asking whether there are more universal ideas and principles for solving problems hidden behind the questions and answers.

Not hard work, but diligence in trying new challenges

dare to try

Good at summarizing

Disadvantages of PDCA

Deep thinking learning is a growth model that in a rapidly changing environment, penetrates into the nature of the problem and uses existing rules (thinking models) to directly attack the key points of the problem.

Its essence is to stand on the shoulders of giants and keep moving forward

it thinks

The crux of the matter

It takes a lot of time to analyze the nature of the problem

You should spend time learning the principles and laws that have been discovered by predecessors but that you have not yet mastered, and enrich your knowledge base.

Understand the nature of the problem

Master a large number of principles and laws

OODA stands for the first letters of four English words for decision-making process.

The decision-making mechanism of PDCA is to assume that the external environment is relatively stable.

OODA focuses its core energy on systematically and dynamically determining the nature of the problem. With this premise, it is relatively simple to invoke appropriate strategies to take action.

The new ideas developed by the U.S. Air Force in response to environmental changes are exactly the ideas we should learn from when facing environmental changes today.

In a rapidly changing environment, we must also establish a "sensor system" for our own learning.

From the ideological practice in different industries and fields, obtain ideological information across disciplines and master the thinking models of different disciplines, so as to deeply analyze the nature of the problem and timely adjust the analysis and problem-solving strategies.

The first type is the experience-based thinking model, which is often derived from the summary of practical experience and can provide inspiration when we deal with specific problems.

Features: Small sample heuristic summary

Examples: chop off the ankles, capture the thief first and capture the king first

The second type is the method-process thinking model, which standardizes and processes solutions to many common problems.

Popular methodological books similar to McKinsey's work methods on the market often provide reusable thinking models at this level.

Features: Streamlined large-sample experience

Examples: swto analysis, pest analysis, growth AARRR

The third category is subject principle thinking model, which is an important thinking model for thinking and solving problems discovered by scientists in various disciplines.

Features: Scientific method verification

Examples: mathematics, psychology (anchoring), system dynamics, etc.

The fourth category is the philosophical perspective thinking model, which refers to the most basic ways of thinking and ideas for thinking about problems in different disciplines, and is the different angles from which we understand the world.

Characteristics: Rational and speculative thinking style

Examples: entropy increase thinking, evolutionary thinking, mechanistic thinking

The prism of thought is that we should not only look for answers across fields, but also continue to ask questions based on the answers.

Subject principles

Philosophical Perspective: Reductive Analysis

Example

On the other hand, once we discover and make up for a blind spot in thinking, we can systematically improve our thinking ability.

The important method is to "put yourself into the historical scene and question your own practices." Only by returning to the scene at that time can we see the exquisite way of thinking of our predecessors.

Think like experts in different fields. The farther apart two disciplines are, the greater the difference in the way of thinking they use when solving problems, and the more they can enrich and improve our way of thinking.

These two ways of thinking have become my core thinking models - "questioning questions" and "changing the source"

Questioning the very questions we ask

Think about the problem from the source of the dilemma

I buy many business best-sellers and tool and method books. I don’t pursue reading them all. When I encounter a problem, I read related books with questions and find out what “thinking models” different authors have used for the same problem. "

Of course, finding the thinking model by "looking it up in the dictionary" is fast, but the understanding and memory may not be firm.

In order to solve this problem, I developed a "non-reading method" to accelerate the mastery of thinking models in conjunction with the dictionary method.

The so-called "non-reading method" means that once we see a thinking model that inspires us while reading, we close the book and stop reading.

In fact, the key to mastering knowledge lies in thinking and practicing valuable solution strategies.

Now, we need to adjust the time allocation for reading: spend 20% of the time reading and 80% of the time thinking.

Once you read something you find useful/interesting, stop and close the book

ask yourself questions

Interrupt our "greed" through the "not reading" mechanism, spend 80% of our time thinking and training, and improve our cognition

Analyze and determine what is the core issue the author is trying to solve in the book

Find the key words related to the core issues in the book

What is the relationship between these keywords, what logic do they use to solve the problem, and what are the effective strategies?

Read the history of intellectual development in various fields

Study “Research Reviews” in related fields

It is not about recording other people’s thoughts or opinions, but about learning from other people’s thoughts and practices, improving our own knowledge system, and finding more effective strategies to solve problems.

Before taking notes every time, I first draw a five-pointed star. Each corner represents a question. There are five questions in total. The process of taking notes is the process of answering these five questions.

After answering the five questions, the notes are completed.

The core principle behind this method is that even if you write down what others say, it is still their knowledge.

Only by further processing what others have said, putting other people's knowledge into our own knowledge system, and connecting those inspirations and gains with our own experiences and next actions can we truly extract from what others have done. Essence

Anticipate what the other party’s core content is and why this content is worthy of discussion.

Record the logic of the other party’s explanation

What questions and inspirations do I have in this discussion?

What effective strategies (thinking models) can be distilled from the other party’s practices, ideas, or inspiration points to me?

What inspirations did I get from this discussion that I can immediately turn into next steps? How do I apply them to my life?

Use an important thinking model in economics: comparative advantage

The so-called "comparative advantage"

The essence of social interaction is the exchange of resources and value. If you can’t help others, others can’t help you. Social interaction in the unfamiliar mode is so pure.

Where you are is often more important than what you do. The environment does not determine the level of effort, but the environment will exponentially amplify the effect of your efforts.

Choose a high-value network

Master-level super connections can be divided into 4 categories

situational learning

alternate learning

Review test

To put it simply, in order to master a thinking model, we need to apply it in at least three different scenarios.

3 steps

Method 1: Use “familiar” to understand “unfamiliar”

Method 2: Use “repetition” to increase “speed”