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Chapter 2 Procurement Demand Analysis
The content of demand forecasting technology: It includes the prediction of demand and the prediction of changing trends in the varieties, specifications, colors, models, styles, quality, packaging, brands, trademarks, and required time of the goods in demand.
Edited at 2022-05-23 18:49:52
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Chapter 2 Procurement Demand Analysis
market survey
Commonly used analytical tools for market research
Enterprise external environment analysis tool—PEST analysis method
PEST: It is the abbreviation of the first letters of English words that affect the formulation of corporate strategy: political, economic, social, and technological. PEST analysis. It is a basic tool for external environment analysis.
Political factors: refer to the factors that influence the political system, political situation, government policies, laws and regulations, and social security of the country or region in which the enterprise operates.
Economic factors: refers to factors such as domestic and foreign economic conditions, economic characteristics, and economic connections that enterprises need to consider when formulating strategies.
Technical factors: factors such as the technical level, new product development, and technological development of the countries and regions involved in the enterprise's business.
Procurement variety analysis tool—product life cycle analysis
The life cycle of each product or service can be divided into introduction period, growth period, maturity period and decline period.
Introduction period: sales of the product or service are very low
Growth stage: sales rise rapidly
Maturity stage: sales become relatively stable
Decline: Sales begin to decline until the market shrinks to a fraction of its original size or disappears completely.
Enterprise competition analysis tool-five forces model analysis method
Famous American management scientist Michael Porter
What are the forces affecting competitiveness?
Competition among suppliers
Threats posed by new competitors entering the market
New or substitute products or services in the market
Competition among upstream suppliers
Where the buyer is in the market
Enterprise internal and external environment analysis tool-swot analysis method
When conducting SWOT analysis, there are several main aspects:
Analysis environment
Construct swot matrix
Develop strategies
demand forecasting technology
Definition of demand forecasting technology: Market demand forecasting is to predict the demand for a certain commodity by consumers who have the ability to pay money within a certain period of time and within a certain market range.
The content of demand forecasting technology: It includes the prediction of demand and the prediction of changing trends in the varieties, specifications, colors, models, styles, quality, packaging, brands, trademarks, and required time of the goods in demand.
There are two broad categories of methods for market demand forecasting:
Qualitative prediction
Definition of qualitative forecasting method: Qualitative forecasting method, also known as empirical judgment forecasting method or intuitive forecasting method, is the prediction and promotion of the future development trend of a certain market phenomenon by individual or group forecasters relying on their intuition, subjective experience and comprehensive judgment ability.
Qualitative forecasting method
extrapolation forecasting method
Definition: Refers to methods that do not use or rarely use mathematical models, but mainly rely on people's experience and judgment to make predictions.
The projection forecasting method is further divided into: balance sheet forecasting method, analogy method, transduction method, and joint measurement method.
collective opinion method
Definition: It refers to the method of market forecasting based on the opinions of internal business managers, business personnel, etc., based on their experience and judgment, to jointly discuss market trends.
expert panel method
The expert panel method is also called the Delphi method
Content: Mainly refers to following the prescribed procedures, using the method of correspondence inquiry, and making judgments and analyzes based on the expert group back-to-back, instead of face-to-face meetings, so that the experts’ different opinions can be fully expressed, and after objective analysis and several consultations and feedbacks, the decision-making process can be achieved Various different opinions tend to converge, thereby obtaining prediction results that are more in line with the laws of market development.
Quantitative forecasting method
Definition: It refers to a prediction method that uses statistical methods and mathematical models to approximate the quantitative change relationship of prediction objects based on historical and realistic data, and makes quantitative predictions on the prediction objects based on this.
Quantitative forecasting method
time series analysis
intuitive method
Moving average method: The moving average method is a common method that uses a set of recent actual data values to predict the demand for the company's products, the company's production capacity, etc. in one or several periods in the future. The moving average method is suitable for spot forecasting.
Causal Analysis and Forecasting
One-variable linear regression analysis method
multiple regression analysis
Steps to conduct market research
Formulate a city survey plan: 1. Determine the direction of market survey. 2. Set specific methods for market research. 3. Set specific goals and schedule for market research.
Prepare market survey questionnaire
Questionnaire content
Principles of questionnaire design: 1. Purpose principle. 2. The principle of acceptability. 3. The principle of sequence. 4. The principle of simplicity. 5. Matching principle.
Use questionnaire survey
Write market research report
Format for writing a market research report: 1. Foreword. 2. Text. 3. Key points analysis. 4 Conclusion. 5. Suggestions.
Things to note when writing a market research report
Implementation steps for writing a market research report: 1. Preparation for writing a research report. 2. Write an investigation report. 3. Submit an investigation report.
Determination of purchasing needs
Determination of sales plan
Material consumption quota
Product is consumed
technical loss
non-process losses
Material Requirements Planning
Independent needs and related needs
Logical structure of material requirements planning
MRP: It is a practical technology that uses the master production plan, bill of materials, inventory and ordered and undelivered orders to calculate the relevant demand for various materials and parts, and propose various new orders or modify various existing orders.
The product's factory delivery plan is determined by the master production plan based on the sales contract or market forecast.
Product structure indicates that a product is composed of various parts and components at various levels.
Basic calculation steps for material requirements planning
Receipt and collation of purchase requisitions
Format and content of purchase requisition
Source of requisition
Principles for processing purchase requisitions
First come first served basis
The principle of scheduling according to the demand date
Urgent order priority principle
Important order priority principle
Seasonal order priority principle
Formation of demand report
Statistical Analysis
ABC classification